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to appropriately quantify actual hazards such as fatigue or
weather when making flight decisions. The single pilot who
has no other crew member for consultation must wrestle
with the intangible factors that draw one into a hazardous
position. Therefore, he or she has a greater vulnerability
than a full crew.
Examining National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB)
reports and other accident research can help a pilot learn to
assess risk more effectively. For example, the accident rate
during night VFR decreases by nearly 50 percent once a
pilot obtains 100 hours, and continues to decrease until the
1,000 hour level. The data suggest that for the first 500 hours,
pilots flying VFR at night might want to establish higher
personal limitations than are required by the regulations
and, if applicable, apply instrument flying skills in this
environment.
Several risk assessment models are available to assist in the
process of assessing risk. The models, all taking slightly
different approaches, seek a common goal of assessing risk
in an objective manner.
The most basic tool is the risk matrix. [Figure 9-2] It assesses
two items: the likelihood of an event occurring and the
consequence of that event.
Likelihood of an Event
Likelihood is nothing more than taking a situation and
determining the probability of its occurrence. It is rated as
probable, occasional, remote, or improbable. For example, a
pilot is flying from point A to point B (50 miles) in marginal
visual flight rules (MVFR) conditions. The likelihood of
encountering potential instrument meteorological conditions
9-5
Catastrophic Critical Marginal Negligible
Improbable
Remote
Occasional
Probable
Risk Assessment Matrix
Likelihood
Severity
Serious Low Medium
Serious
Serious High High
High
Figure 9-2. This risk matrix can be used for almost any operation
by assigning likelihood and severity. In the case presented, the
pilot assigned the likelihood of occassional and the severity as
catastrophic falls in the high-risk area.
Illness—Do I have any symptoms?
Medication—Have I been taking prescription or
over-the-counter drugs?
Stress—Am I under psychological pressure from
the job? Worried about financial matters, health
problems, or family discord?
Alcohol—Have I been drinking within 8 hours?
Within 24 hours?
Fatigue—Am I tired and not adequately rested?
Eating—Am I adequately nourished?
I'M SAFE CHECKLIST
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Figure 9-3. Prior to flight, pilots should assess their fitness, just as
they evaluate the aircraft’s airworthiness.
(IMC) is the first question the pilot needs to answer. The
experiences of other pilots, coupled with the forecast, might
cause the pilot to assign “occasional” to determine the
probability of encountering IMC.
The following are guidelines for making assignments.
• Probable—an event will occur several times.
• Occasional—an event will probably occur
sometime.
• Remote—an event is unlikely to occur, but is
possible.
• Improbable—an event is highly unlikely to occur.
Severity of an Event
The next element is the severity or consequence of a pilot’s
action(s). It can relate to injury and/or damage. If the
individual in the example above is not an instrument flight
rules (IFR) pilot, what are the consequences of encountering
inadvertent IMC? In this case, because the pilot is not IFR
rated, the consequences are catastrophic. The following are
guidelines for this assignment.
• Catastrophic—results in fatalities, total loss
• Critical—severe injury, major damage
• Marginal—minor injury, minor damage
• Negligible—less than minor injury, less than minor
system damage
Simply connecting the two factors as shown in
Figure 9-2 indicates the risk is high and the pilot must either
not fly or fly only after finding ways to mitigate, eliminate,
or control the risk.
Mitigating Risk
Risk assessment is only part of the equation. After determining
the level of risk, the pilot needs to mitigate the risk. For
example, the pilot flying from point A to point B (50 miles)
in MVFR conditions has several ways to reduce risk:
• Wait for the weather to improve to good visual flight
rules (VFR) conditions.
• Take a pilot who is rated as an IFR pilot.
　
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