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would be attributable to en-route delays. This is
known as the “delay forecast”.
53
PAGE
EUROCONTROL Annual Report 2003
54
PAGE
The actual traffic variation from May to
October 2003 showed a 2.2% increase over
the same period the previous year, in line
with the prediction. The average delay was
1.8 minutes per flight, of which 1.2 minutes
were attributable to en-route delay.
The results for the summer 2003 period were
therefore better than the target set by the
Provisional Council but worse than the predicted
figures. It should, however, be noted
that the total delay for summer 2003 was
25% less than the same period in 2002.
If we make a trend summary by comparing
summer 2003 figures with those of 1998,
traffic has increased by 12.5% while the total
delay has decreased by 58.5%. Given the rule
of thumb that, at constant capacity, a 1%
increase in traffic corresponds to a 5%
increase in delay, we can conclude that since
1998 the ATC system has been able to absorb
a 24% increase in traffic for the same amount
of delay.
The summer period is known to ATFM users
as the most congested period of the year. A
yearly report will not therefore bring a lot of
new information. Nevertheless, it is important
to report on a yearly basis firstly for statistical
reasons but also to provide exhaustive
reporting on ATFM operations. The winter
period is not exempt from special events,
such as severe weather conditions, that
might heavily impact ATFM delays.
YEARLY TRAFFIC GROWTH
The decline in the daily traffic observed during
2001 and 2002 was fully recovered in
2003 with an increase of 2.8% compared to
2002. The average of 23,197 flights per day
was even slightly higher than the 2000
figure.
The yearly variation chart contrasts the considerable
reduction in air traffic up to and
including 2002 with the noticeable recovery
recorded in 2003. It shows in particular that
traffic in 2003 is 0.5% higher than in 2000.
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
19 000
20 000
21 000
22 000
23 000
24 000 flights
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
-5.0%
0%
-2.5%
2.5%
5.0%
7.5%
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
0%
5.0%
2.5%
7.5%
10.0%
12.5%
6.7% 6.7%
11.6%
11.2%
9.1%
12.2%
4.8%
-0.6%
-1.9%
2.8%
20 681
22 064
23 071
23 001
22 567
23 197
AVERAGE DAILY TRAFFIC TREND
YEARLY TRAFFIC VARIATION
TRAFFIC VARIATION SINCE 1998
YEARLY DELAY PER FLIGHT
The 2003 average delays were well within the targets
set by the EUROCONTROL Commission, with
1.7 minutes per flight instead of 2.8 minutes for
the total delay and 0.9 minutes instead of 2.1
minutes for the en-route delay.
The 2003 average delay was 20% lower than the
2002 value, contrasting positively with the 2.8%
increase in number of flights.
ASSISTANCE WITH “SPECIAL EVENTS”
A 'special event' is any unforeseen event which
temporarily causes a reduction in capacity of sufficient
magnitude to require flow management
assistance. There can be many causes of “special
events”, ranging from a failed luggage conveyor
belt to industrial action or adverse weather conditions.
The handling of special events is an integral part
of the work and the CFMU has always assisted
the air navigation service providers (and indirectly
the airport authorities, handling agents and of
course aircraft operators) in coping with special
events. It is, however, worth noting that as traffic
increases so too does this aspect of the work. A
relatively small disruption, whatever the cause, is
more likely to have a significant effect when traffic
levels are high.
During 2003, flow management regulations were
implemented for a total period of 230,670 hours,of
which 136,043 hours or 59% was due to special
events whereas in 2002 special events accounted
for 50% of the total regulation period.
ATFCM OPERATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS
The evolution of the pre-tactical phase within the
Network Management Cell (NMC) of the CFMU
Flow Management Division continued. The cell
now has 5 network specialists who not only assist
the network managers in the creation of the tactical
plan but also carry out ATFCM simulations.
These are very important when assessing the effectiveness
of ATFCM measures both in the pre-tactical
phase but also in the more strategic planning
phase of airspace changes. Air navigation service
　
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