ChApTeR SIX

Conclusions
China’s aerospace sector has advanced at a rapid, though not unantici-pated, rate over the past decade and will continue to advance in future years. At present, however, it still lags behind the state of the art in virtually all areas. Nonetheless, the development of China’s civil aero-space sector is unquestionably contributing to the development of its military aerospace capabilities, increasing China’s ability and possibly its propensity to use force in ways that negatively affect U.S. interests and would increase the costs of resisting attempts to use such force.
The Rate at Which China’s Aerospace Sector Has Developed
Until the creation of COMAC in 2008, all of China’s civilian and mili-tary aerospace products were produced by China’s state-owned defense conglomerates. Even as China’s economy was opened up, beginning in the 1970s, these industries remained backward and inefficient, burdened by remaining part of the planned economy and starved for resources. A 2001 RAND study (Cliff, 2001, pp. 24–25), noted
The combat aircraft [produced in China] are mostly based on 1950s and 1960s Soviet technology . . . and other than co-assembly of McDonnell Douglas passenger aircraft . . . China’s capability for producing transport aircraft is limited to short-range and medium-range turboprops. Chinese helicopters in production are all based on European models.
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The same study noted that “China has an impressive [space] launcher capability for a developing country” (emphasis added), but that “China’s satellite capabilities are less impressive than its launch capa-bilities” (Cliff, 2001, pp. 27–28).
China’s military modernization drive since the late 1990s, how-ever, has resulted in important structural reforms and increased resources for its aerospace industries, and China’s aviation sector has become increasingly involved in supplying civilian aircraft compo-nents to major foreign manufacturers.1 Progress has been rapid. China is now able to produce modern military aircraft, highly reliable space launch vehicles, a wide range of military and civilian satellites, and an increasingly wide and sophisticated range of components for Western airframe and engine manufactures such as Boeing, Airbus, Eurocopter, Pratt & Whitney, GE, and Rolls-Royce.
Nonetheless, important capability gaps remain. Many of the sub-systems on Chinese-built military and civilian aircraft, particularly turbofan and turboprop engines, must still be imported. Despite ambi-tions since the late 1990s to develop a domestically designed regional or large airliner, China does not have such an aircraft in operation. And while a regional jet, the ARJ21, is now in testing, it uses foreign engines and avionics, the wing was designed with Russian help, and only a small fraction of the aircraft was constructed from composite materials; thus, even before it reaches production, whether it can com-pete with existing Embraer or Bombardier regional jets is questionable. Similarly, while China has initiated efforts to develop a large commer-cial aircraft, the C919, actual production is still years away. And even then, all of the major subsystems, such as the engines and avionics, are likely to be foreign-designed. China has not demonstrated the abil-ity to independently design and produce innovative and commercially competitive aerospace systems.
　
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