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1,200 additional civil helicopters are expected to be purchased by 2018. China’s general aviation market may be set for an explosion of growth. As of late 2009, the nation’s severely restrictive airspace management regime had limited the number of fixed-wing general aviation aircraft in China to about 800 (compared with 230,000 in the United States). Reforms are under way, however, and the number of fixed-wing gen-eral aviation aircraft in China is expected to increase by 30 percent per year over the next five to 10 years, resulting in more than 10,000 new aircraft by 2020.
Except possibly in the case of helicopters, China’s current abil-ity to meet demand with indigenous aircraft is limited. Its indigenous regional jet, the ARJ21, will begin deliveries in 2011, but the regional jet market in China is small. China’s indigenous large commercial air-craft, the C919, will not begin deliveries until the middle of the decade, at the earliest, and it will be a narrow-body aircraft that competes only with the Boeing 737 series and Airbus A320 series. All wide-body air-craft will be imported at least through 2020. Although Chinese air-lines will apparently be required to buy at least some C919s, their pref-erence, and that of their customers, will continue to be for Boeing and Airbus aircraft with proven safety and reliability records. If the C919 can establish a comparable safety and reliability record, however, and can offer improved comfort and fuel efficiency, it is possible that, over time, it will begin to take market share away from Boeing and Airbus (provided, of course, that Boeing and Airbus do not bring to market even better aircraft in the meantime).
Chinese manufacturers already produce light utility helicopters and medium transport helicopters, and a medium utility helicopter and possibly a heavy transport helicopter are in development. Given China’s limited civil helicopter market, its domestic manufacturing capabilities may be sufficient to satisfy demand, although specialized types of helicopters may be imported. If the fixed-wing general aviation market in China grows as rapidly as projected, much of the demand will be filled by imported aircraft, as the variety of domestic offerings is extremely limited.
The Chinese government has attempted to leverage airliner pur-chases in exchange for arrangements that it hopes will lead to tech-nology transfers into China’s aviation manufacturing industry. In the ARJ21 regional jet and C919 airliner projects in particular, a condi-tion for foreign aerospace firms to be selected as suppliers has often been that a local production facility be established. Partly as a result of these policies, U.S. and other foreign aerospace manufacturers are engaged in numerous joint ventures and other technology transfers with China’s aviation industry. In many cases, however, foreign aero-space manufacturers have established joint ventures in China not to sell products there but to acquire access to China’s low-cost, high-quality labor for manufacturing products that are sold throughout the world. As of today, only about 1 percent of U.S. aerospace imports come from China.
　
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