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very effectively to smooth out the flow of air traffic.
However, as with most tools, there are some
precautions which perhaps should be “printed on
the container,” or in some manner brought to the
attention of the users.
This article is an attempt to provide some of those
cautions, and also to offer some suggestions to
make the “expect” technique safer and more
effective.
I’m getting ready for another flight on an air carrier, and these
somber events never fail to generate a lot of thought about some of the
problems in our National Airspace System. I am somewhat
familiar with these problems because I’ve been involved with the analysis of
incident reports submitted to the NASA Aviation Safety Reporting System
(ASRS) over the past sixteen years, and I’m happy to say that you folks, the
users of the airspace, do a fine job of keeping ASRS apprised of the types of
problems being encountered.
by Don George
Issue Number 4 13
Expect-actions
I have always preached that controllers should not mention an
altitude to a pilot unless they want the pilot to go there, so I believe
that this newer handbook phraseology is a big step in the right
direction, and should decrease the number of altitude deviations.
However, in addition to the climb/descent phases of flight, the
“expect” technique is used in conjunction with all sorts of down-line
planning. Some common examples include: expect vectors; expect
visual approach; expect ILS Runway two-seven; expect departure
after two more landings; expect no delay; expect (altitude) ten
minutes after departure; expect to hold at; and the list goes on and
on.
In addition to the verbal transmissions of what pilots may expect,
there are also visual “transmissions” placed on charts for planning
purposes. Standard Terminal Arrivals (STARs) and Standard
Instrument Departures (SIDs) very often include expected altitudes,
expected course guidance, expected speeds, etc. Here again, remember
that the printing of those expect values on the charts does
not constitute an ATC clearance to descend, climb, turn, etc.
If the chart says expect, the pilot still needs a specific clearance from
the controller before the action is authorized. However, when the
altitudes, routes, speeds, etc., are printed without the word
expect, they are mandatory. Profile descent procedures contain
good examples of these mandatory crossing altitudes and tracks to
be flown, and do not seem to cause nearly as many problems as do
the STARs and SIDs. Probably the STARs/SIDs are more often
confused because they may contain both mandatory and expect
values.
All of this sounds pretty straight forward and fairly uncomplicated,
so. . . . .
What are the Problems?
Well, reports to the ASRS reflect a variety of incident types in which
there was an unexpected action resulting from the use of the “expect”
technique. In the preparation of this article I started with several
hundred such reports in front of me, and after reading them several
times, I have picked a few which may provide you with some insight
into the kinds of problems being encountered — kind of like trying to
pick the best six or seven chunks of apple from a barrel of fruit salad.
Learning from other peoples’ mistakes sure beats the heck out of
making your own errors, so it should prove to be beneficial for you to
read, interpret and analyze the following reports submitted to ASRS.
I suggest that you take the report narratives one at a time, and try to
figure out what happened, why it happened, and what, if anything,
should have been done differently to prevent the occurrence. Compare
your analysis to ours.
Background
Once upon a time, on a dark and stormy night, in
an effort to assist pilots and controllers in their
planning, the phraseology “...Expect altitude XXX,
or Flight Level XXX in YY minutes/miles...” was
introduced into the Controllers Handbook (ATP
7110.65). The intent was to allow the pilot to better
plan climb/descent profiles. Although well intended,
this practice contributed to a large number
of altitude deviations.
The climb/descent phases of flight are quite busy
times in the life of a flight crew, and the work load
in a single-pilot cockpit may be even more critical.
During those times when cockpit duties require
that one pilot is responsible for flying, communicating,
and possibly configuring the aircraft for
climb or descent, it is easy for the pilot to misunderstand
an instruction to expect an altitude
change. Further, these phases of flight usually
　
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