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specialist Erik Hollnagel [R5.20].
The results of the NLR contribution to the RHEA project (Role of the Human in the
Evolution of ATM) [R5.21] show that this fast-time human performance modeling
approach is feasible when evaluating ATM conceptual developments with respect to
safety.
SEPARATION SAFETY MODELING
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List of References
R5.1 Reich, Peter G., “Analysis of Long-Range Air Traffic Systems: Separation
Standards--I, II, and III,” The Journal of (the Institute of) Navigation, Vol.19 (1966), No.
1, pp. 88-96; No. 2, pp. 169-176; No. 3, pp. 331-338. [Note: Contains same material as
R5.2.]
R5.2 Reich, Peter G., “A Theory of Safe Separation Standards for Air Traffic Control,”
Farnborough, United Kingdom: Royal Aircraft Establishment, RAE Technical Reports
Nos. 64041, 64042, 64043, 1964. [Note: Contains same material as R5.1.]
R5.3 Machol, R., “Thirty Years of Modeling Midair Collisions,” Interfaces, Vol.25
(1995), No 5, pp.151-172.
R5.4 Simpson, Robert W., and Raymond A. Austrotas, “Modelling Risk in ATC
Operations with Ground Interventions,” MIT Flight Transportation Laboratory Report R
91-6, July 1991.
R5.5 Davies, Liz and Andrew Sharpe, “Review of the North Atlantic Lateral Collision
Risk Model,” Air Traffic Control Quarterly, Vol. 1, No. 3, 1993.
R5.6 ICAO RGCSP/9-WP/25, Manual on Airspace Planning Methodology for the
Determination of Separation Minima, Version 3.0, 26 Feb. 1996.
R5.7 RTCA, “Terms of Reference, Air Traffic Services Safety and Interoperability
Requirements,” RTCA SC-189/EUROCAE WG 53.
R5.8 Joseph, Mark, “Air Traffic Services Safety and Interoperability Requirements
Position Paper,” MITRE CAASD & RTCA SC-189/EUROCAE WG-53, 6 June 1997.
R5.9 Everdij, M., M. Klompstra, H. Blom, and O.N. Fota, “Final Report on Safety
Model, Part I: Evaluation of Hazard Analysis Techniques for En route ATM,” MUFTIS
Work Package Report 3.2, The Netherlands: National Aerospace Laboratory, NLR
Technical Report No TR 96196L, 1996.
R5.10 Everdij, M., M. Klompstra, and H. Blom, “Final Report on Safety Model, Part II:
Development of Mathematical Techniques for ATM Safety Analysis,” MUFTIS Work
Package Report 3.2, The Netherlands: National Aerospace Laboratory, NLR Technical
Report No TR 96197L, 1996.
R5.11 Fota, O.N., “Etude de Faisabilitité d’Analyse Globale de la Sécurité d’un CCR à
l’aide de l’EPS (Evaluation Probabiliste de la Sécurité),” Centre d’Études de la Navigation
Aérienne, Rapport CENA/R93-022, 1993.
APPROACHES TO COLLISION RISK ANALYSIS
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R5.12 “Hazard Analysis of an En route Sector, Volume 1 (main report),” Civil Aviation
Authority, RMC Report R93-81(S), 1993.
R5.13 “Hazard Analysis of an En route Sector, Volume 2,” Civil Aviation Authority,
RMC Report R93-81(S), 1993.
R5.14 Foot, P.B., “A Review of the Results of a Trial Hazard Analysis of Airspace
Sectors 24 and 26S,” Civil Aviation Authority, CS Report 9427, 1994.
R5.15 Smith, E.J., “Hazard Analysis of Route Separation Standards for
EUROCONTROL,” DNV Technica, 1994.
R5.16 Shepherd, Roger, Rick Cassell, Rajeev Thapa, and Derrick Lee, “A Reduced
Aircraft Separation Risk Assessment Model,” Proceedings of the AIAA Guidance,
Navigation, and Control Conference, New Orleans, August 10-13, 1997.
R5.17 Siddiqee, W., “A Mathematical Model for Predicting the Number of Potential
Conflict Situations at Intersecting Air Routes,” Transportation Science, No. 7, (1973).
R5.18 Applied Techno-Management Systems, Inc. (ATMS), “Potential Operational
Impacts of GPS with Advanced CNS and ATC Automation Technologies,” Falls Church,
VA: FAA Contract #DTA01-94-Y-00039, February 9, 1996.
R5.19 Geisinger, Kenneth, “Airspace Conflict Equations,” Transportation Science, Vol.
19, No. 2, May 1985, pp. 139-153.
R5.20 Hollnagel, E., Human Reliability Analysis Context and Control, Academic Press,
London, 1993.
R5.21 Biemans, M.C.M., J. Daams, HOMEROS: Human Operator Modelling to
Evaluate Reliability, Organisation and Safety, RHEA/TH/WPR/6/1, European Union
DGVII, Contract number AI-95-SC.107, NLR, 1997.
SEPARATION SAFETY MODELING
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EXISTING MODELS AND MODELING TOOLS
6-1
6.0 EXISTING MODELS AND MODELING TOOLS
6.1 THE ANALYTIC BLUNDER RISK MODEL (ABRM)
Background
The Analytic Blunder Risk Model (ABRM) is an analytic/probabilistic collision risk model
programmed in Microsoft EXCEL.1 The model estimates collision risk for a given singleevent
　
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