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to the release of emissions is directly
related to the amount of fuel consumed.
This further reinforces the incentive to
decrease fuel consumption, despite the
recent, probably temporary, drop in the oil
price. Although it remains to be seen how
the market price of carbon will develop,
it is expected to be around €20-30 per
tonne in the medium term, with many
analysts predicting significant rises in the
longer term.
Aviation抯 response
The industry抯 response to these two
costs will almost inevitably be an even
sharper focus on fuel efficiency. This
may lead to the introduction of larger
Environmental performance:
a necessity
Skyway 50 - Winter 2008 11
aircraft which, depending on growth in
demand, might necessitate a reduction
in frequencies on some routes in order
to increase load factors. Alternatively,
it may lead to increased use of smaller
secondary airports to cut other costs
such as landing fees. This could have the
effect of displacing traffic, with resulting
consequences for route length ?potentially
leading to trade-offs between fuel
and carbon costs on the one hand and
capacity on the other. There might also be
a possible increase in ground transport
impacts, ticket pricing and passenger
demand, and it may also create the need
for improved infrastructure and ground
transport connections to the airports
concerned.
In fact, the EUROCONTROL 2008
Challenges of Growth study expects the
EU emissions trading scheme to reduce
demand by around 1 million departures a
year ?or 5% ?by 2030. This again reinforces
the trends arising from increased
fuel costs towards a need to ensure
greater efficiency by cutting costs and
maximising profit per passenger. This is
likely to be sustained by decisions made
at the next two UNFCCC Conferences of
the Parties (COP). Negotiations began in
December 2008 at COP14 in Poznan,
Poland. To agree the successor to the
Kyoto Protocol, which expires in 2012,
an agreement is expected to be finalised
at COP 15 in Copenhagen in December
2009.
However, this may not be the whole
story. Although the aviation ETS is not
due to come into force until 2012, giving
the industry time to introduce mitigation
measures, it should not be forgotten
that the overall scheme has been established
through the ETS 慚other Directive?
which is currently under review. Although
the extent of any potential amendments
is not yet known, it is possible
that this may lead to substantially more
auctioning of aviation emissions permits
earlier than expected, which will certainly
have an effect on the market price per
tonne. Perhaps surprisingly, we should
be looking across the Atlantic for indicators
as to what to expect. The Regional
Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI), an
emissions trading scheme currently
comprising ten US States, has been
active since 2005 and held its first emissions
permit auctions in September this
year1. Although the scheme currently
only encompasses the energy sector,
trends resulting from the second planned
permit auction in December 2008 could
be used as a proxy indicator for what to
expect in Europe.
This is not the only reason to keep a
close eye on events across the Atlantic.
The recent election of a new American
President has raised a general expectation
of a new approach to environmental
issues and changes to existing policies,
with the President-elect indicating he
will take measures to curb greenhouse
gas emissions and increase investment
in renewable energy. How this will affect
The 2008 Challenges of
Growth study expects the
EU emissions trading
scheme to reduce demand
by around 1 million
departures a year ?
or 5% ?by 2030.
1- www.rggi.org/home
Focus
12
the international aviation industry remains
to be seen. However, it is possible that
we will see a convergence of regional
schemes such as RGGI leading to the
development of an ETS at federal level.
The EU ETS is an economic policy
instrument driven by the political
commitment to control emissions and
increase efficiency in an effort to combat
climate change. However, the impact of
climate change itself could also directly
affect aviation. Although some scepticism
remains as to whether the cause
is anthropogenic, there is now a general
consensus among scientists, industry
and policy-makers that our climate is
indeed changing. The resulting effects,
　
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本文鏈接地址：Skyway Magazine Winter 2008(7)