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mitigating the capacity challenge which
have been adapted to different market
segments after consultation with operators
and airports.
This new study is called 揅hallenges of
Growth? The change of name indicates
the increasing recognition that air traffic
growth is not an aim in its own right and
that, depending on the criteria, it can be
either a benefit or a threat. Traffic growth
is seen as an intermediate enabler of
larger benefits such as increased prosperity,
sustainable economic growth,
social cohesion, corporate profitability
and job security while carrying with it
threats such as an increased environmental
impact. Consequently, growth
in demand is not only welcomed for its
benefits, it is also the cause of significant
challenges for the air transport industry
and more widely for society.
Later articles in this issue of Skyway
expand on the main themes of the
揅hallenges?study.
In summary, the most important conclusions
are as follows:
n Airports have responded. Their
plans are better adapted to demand
than they were four years ago.
Airports are now expected to handle
1.7 million more flights in 2025 than
forecasted four years ago, at the
same level of congestion.
n However, there is still a significant
airport capacity problem: even in
the modest-growth, 憆egulation and
growth?scenario, which looks the
most likely, 11% of demand will not
be accommodated.
n Air traffic management needs to
be ready to manage a highlycongested
network, with 20 airports
as congested as Heathrow by 2030,
and 50% of each day抯 flights passing
through those airports.
n Some of the gap between demand
and capacity can be bridged.
Mitigation action includes use of
alternative airports, SESAR and
further investment in airports beyond
their current plans, but high-speed
trains are of only narrow applicability
in this respect.
n The start of emissions trading will
mean more environmental challenges,
and an increasing focus
on trade-offs between environmental
慴enefits?
n Climate change is coming, and it
could change patterns of demand,
so we need to develop an agile air
transport system.
揅hallenges?could not have reported at
a more appropriate time, as the Airport
Observatory begins its work, airport
expansion plans are again in the spotlight
in many States, and SESAR begins
its work of delivering the next generation
of ATM. The data and analysis are available,
and will inform decision-making in
these challenging times. n
Focus
8
Every two years, EUROCONTROL抯 Statistics & Forecast
Service (STATFOR) produces a long-term forecast, which
looks into the future of the air traffic industry over the next
twenty years. This year抯 forecast (LTF08) was a main
component of the 2008 Challenges of Growth study,
providing data for other work packages which looked at
the challenges facing forecast air traffic to 2030.
Madga Gregorova and David Marsh report.
Forecasting
the challenges ahead
The starting point for the new long-term
forecast was another major component
of the 揅hallenges?study: an updated
account of airport plans for capacity.
In this survey of airports and service
providers, with the help of ACI EUROPE,
the Agency obtained information on the
current situation and future plans for
nearly 250 airports. From this information,
capacity plans to 2030 were identified for
138 airports, which is twice the number
covered by the study four years ago. If
these plans can be delivered, then the
138 airports in total projected that their
capacity would be 41% higher in 2030
than 2007, breaking down as follows:
n an 18% increase at 27 airports with
new runways, in addition to other
infrastructure;
n a 17% increase at a further 79 airports,
which plan to improve the infrastructure
air-side (taxiways, aprons etc.)
or ground-side (passenger terminals,
etc.);
n a 6% increase at five major new
airports;
n and only 27 airports reporting no
current plans to expand capacity.
Looking more than 20 years ahead, the
aim of a long-term forecast is not to give
a single figure for the future number of
flights, but rather to provide decisionmakers
with a structured view of the
possible futures for air traffic, to give them
a tool to assess the opportunities and
risks related to changing conditions in the
air industry and the world in general.
Different scenarios
　
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本文鏈接地址：Skyway Magazine Winter 2008(4)