Demonstrated that pilot and controller human behavioral factors can be represented within an existing NAS fast-time simulation (Simmod PRO!) and that the resulting simulation can be exercised to provide useful information for addressing a safety issue of interest to the aviation community (runway incursions).
Key conclusions from this initial phase of the research project were:
The application of Simmod PRO! to the runway incursion problem clearly demonstrated that human performance factors can be incorporated into an existing fast-time simulation model, and the resulting simulation can be applied to obtain valuable results for addressing a critical aviation safety issue.
To enable fast-time simulation tools to meet general-purpose needs for safety analysis, significant enhancements to existing simulation capabilities will be required. These enhancements need to address the implementation of open architecture concepts in model and program design, the representation of aircraft performance, the modeling of the behavior of the human agents involved, and the representation of the communication processes among controllers, pilots, and other system components.
Developments in the field of cognitive modeling have reached the point where a carefully designed model can be expected to give reasonable and useful results. Furthermore, a growing number of such models have been implemented in a form that could be integrated or interfaced with a fast-time air traffic simulation model.
Given the lack of understanding of practical issues involved with combining cognitive models with air traffic simulations, it would be advantageous for future research efforts to involve combining several promising cognitive models with a selected air traffic simulation and applying the alternatives to a common problem. This should provide valuable insights into the strengths and weaknesses of modeling alternatives.
Neural network modeling techniques may hold considerable promise for efficient and realistic modeling of human cognitive and decision-making behavior, and warrant consideration for future research.
The second year’s research was completed in CY00 (Abkin et al., 2000). It involved literature review, field observations at an airport control tower, model development, execution, and simulation analysis. Specific focus was on carrying out a linkage between the MIDAS human performance model and the Simmod PRO! air traffic operations simulation model. Primary research tasks accomplished included:
Examined issues related to modeling human performance within the context of fast-time simulation of air traffic operations for aviation safety analysis, the interfacing of human performance models with air traffic operations models, and systemwide safety analysis.
Conducted field observations at Los Angeles International Airport (LAX) and built scripts describing controller and pilot communications and procedures for taxi-out, taxi-in, and runway crossing operations.
Programmed and parameterized the MIDAS human performance model for the LAX runway crossing and transgression scenarios, using the taxi procedure scripts.
Executed the Simmod PRO! simulation for a baseline case to generate distributions of traffic loads on local and ground controllers for the south runway complex.
Based upon those traffic load distributions along with hypothesized controller background activity levels, executed an experimental design of nine MIDAS simulation runs and analyzed the associated human performance simulation results.
Designed the data formats necessary to input resolver and resolution time distributions derived from MIDAS outputs to Simmod PRO! for simulation of traffic consequences of those distributions.
Key conclusions from this phase of the research project are:
Implementation of the static, partial linkage accomplished in this phase of the research has demonstrated that full, dynamic linkage between a human performance model and an air traffic operations simulation model is essential for useful safety analysis. Such a linkage is recommended for the next phase of the research.
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