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o 0.4% additional internal traffic.
· For the EURO 2012 (European football Championship), the assumptions are
based on EURO 2008 effects on traffic:
o 1.1% additional arrival departures and 0.4% additional internals for Poland,
o 3.4% additional arrival-departures and 0.4% additional internals for Ukraine.
· No adjustment is made for the North-Atlantic traffic following the Open Skies
agreement entry into force in March 2008. The agreement seems not to have
such a strong effect on flights as expected last year; North-Atlantic flows have in
fact declined in the month after the start of Open Skies and there is no indication
of rapid acceleration in the coming years. Following the same conclusions, no
adjustment is made for the EU-Canada Open Skies agreement signed in May
2009.
Figure 29. Events and Trends assumptions by Traffic Zone.
Source: STATFOR analysis and modelling
Comments: Consolidation includes: trends from STF; and future events such as EU Accession or London Olympics.
Units: Growth index (Baseline Year=1.0). Data last updated: 11/02/2010
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
H 1.035 1.055 1.060 1.060 1.060 1.060 1.060
B 1.015 1.025 1.030 1.030 1.030 1.030 1.030
Bulgaria Total: Excluding Overflights
L 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000
H . . 1.070 1.105 1.115 1.120 1.120
B . . 1.050 1.075 1.085 1.090 1.090
Croatia Total: Excluding Overflights
L . . 1.030 1.045 1.055 1.060 1.060
H 1.020 1.020 1.020 1.020 1.020 1.020 1.020
B 1.010 1.010 1.010 1.010 1.010 1.010 1.010
FYROM Total: Excluding Overflights
L 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000
H . . 1.070 1.105 1.115 1.120 1.120
B . . 1.050 1.075 1.085 1.090 1.090
Iceland Total: Excluding Overflights
L . . 1.030 1.045 1.055 1.060 1.060
H . . 1.008 . . . .
B . . 1.004 . . . .
Total: Internal
L . . 1.002 . . . .
H . . 1.017 . . . .
B . . 1.011 . . . .
Poland
Total: Arr/Dep
L . . 1.007 . . . .
H 1.035 1.055 1.060 1.060 1.060 1.060 1.060
B 1.015 1.025 1.030 1.030 1.030 1.030 1.030
Romania Total: Excluding Overflights
L 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000
H 1.020 1.020 1.020 1.020 1.020 1.020 1.020
B 1.010 1.010 1.010 1.010 1.010 1.010 1.010
Serbia&Montenegro Total: Excluding Overflights
L 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000
EUROCONTROL Medium-Term Forecast: IFR Flight Movements 2010-2016
Page 32 Released Issue Edition Number: v1.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
H . . 1.004 . . . .
B . . 1.004 . . . .
Total: Internal
L . . 1.004 . . . .
H . . 1.002 . . . .
B . . 1.002 . . . .
UK
Total: Arr/Dep
L . . 1.002 . . . .
H . . 1.008 . . . .
B . . 1.004 . . . .
Total: Internal
L . . 1.002 . . . .
H . . 1.038 . . . .
B . . 1.034 . . . .
Ukraine
Total: Arr/Dep
L . . 1.030 . . . .
Adjustments to the overall number of movements have been made to allow for the
2012 and 2016 leap years.
The Medium-Term Forecast in 2007 was the first MTF to adopt a technique
developed for the Long-Term Forecast, which allows traffic to be switched between
airports (see Figure 30). Similarly as in 2008 the following assumptions have been
used for this forecast:
· The closure of Berlin/Tegel (EDDT), with traffic moving to Berlin/Schönefeld
(EDDB): shift of traffic starting in 2011, completed9 in 2012.
· The growth of Istanbul/Sabiha Gokcen (LTFJ) as a secondary airport relieving
Istanbul/Ataturk (LTBA). This is achieved by switching 1% of LTBA local traffic to
LTFJ in the first year, increasing gradually to 10% in 2016.
· The move of Fedex hub from Frankfurt (EDDF) to Cologne (EDDK) (shift of traffic
starting in 2010 and to be completed in 2011).
Figure 30. Airport traffic switch.
Source: EUROCONTROL Data and analysis
Comments: Updated from MTF10 inputs
Units: Airport Traffic Switching. Data last updated: 02/02/2010
Low Base High
2010 2011 2012 2016 2010 2011 2012 2016 2010 2011 2012 2016
Traffic Type Traffic Between And Region Move To
EDDT - EDDB . 25% 100% . . 25% 100% All . . 25% 100% .
LTBA ESRA Mediterranean LTFJ 1% . . 10% 1% . . 10% 1% . . 10%
ESRA North-West EDDK 13% 15% . . 13% 15% . . 13% 15% . .
ESRA Mediterranean EDDK 15% 18% . . 15% 18% . . 15% 18% . .
Cargo EDDF
North Atlantic EDDK 14% 16% . . 14% 16% . . 14% 16% . .
9 It is not clear when the switch and completion will happen, but the assumptions for MTF10 input are
based on the above mentioned dates.
EUROCONTROL Medium-Term Forecast: IFR Flight Movements 2010-2016
Edition Number: v1.0 Released Issue Page 33
　
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